Second-order thinking
Keep asking and then what until the picture of the consequences stops changing
First-order thinking stops at the immediate result. Second-order thinking carries on to what happens after that, and after that, which is where the real cost of a bad decision usually sits. The method is one question, repeated: and then what? Howard Marks made the case for it in investing, where holding the view everyone else already holds is worth nothing. Outside markets it mostly works as a check on the quick fix.
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- Shane ParrishRecommends
Writer · Farnam Street and The Knowledge Project
The prompt he gives is one question, and then what, asked across ten minutes, ten months and ten years. First-order thinking is the failure he points at: it takes whatever settles the immediate problem and leaves the consequences to turn up later.
Source: fs.blog: second-order thinking
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